MacroGenics, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGNX) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 48% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.89. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MacroGenics after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for MacroGenics

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering MacroGenics are now predicting revenues of US$109.3m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a major 166% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.64 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$117.3m and losses of US$2.00 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target fell 6.3% to US$7.50, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on MacroGenics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$16.00 and the most bearish at US$4.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting MacroGenics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6x annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MacroGenics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at MacroGenics. They also downgraded MacroGenics' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MacroGenics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MacroGenics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with MacroGenics (including 3 which are a bit unpleasant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.