Michigan has long been a swing state, meaning it’s anyone’s guess right now as to whether it will support the Republican (Donald Trump) or Democratic (Kamala Harris) presidential candidate come November.

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From the 1930s through the 1960s, the Great Lakes State routinely switched between both parties before voting exclusively Republican in the 1970s and 1980s. After that, it became part of the “blue wall” and voted Democratic for every presidential election from 1992 to 2012.

It wasn’t until the 2016 election that Michigan once again switched and voted Republican, allowing Trump the win against Hillary Clinton. But then in 2020, Michigan once again flipped, helping Joe Biden take office.

As election day draws near, it’s a toss-up between whether Michigan will vote for Kamala Harris or Trump. If it’s the latter and you’re wondering what’ll happen with your retirement, here’s a quick look at some of Trump’s key issues and how they could affect your retirement.

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Rising Cost of Living and Inflation

A 2024 Retirement Confidence Survey found that roughly three-quarters of American retirees are concerned that inflation will continue to be high in the coming months. Nearly 70% worry that the cost of living will continue to rise and make it harder to save or stretch their retirement funds.

Regardless of who wins the election, inflation is a major concern that will need to be addressed. Like Harris, Trump has proposed several policies to support the economy. Some of these policies, however, could lead to higher costs.

For example, Trump has proposed enacting tariffs on imported goods. This could support more domestic businesses, but it very likely would make these goods more expensive for the consumer. Depending on the tariffs and the manufacturers’ reaction to them, prices of imported goods could end up on par with domestic goods (if not more expensive).

For those planning for retirement, this would mean paying more money for everyday goods.

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Impact on the Stock Market

The same survey found that 62% of retirees are worried the stock market will become more volatile. This isn’t necessarily due to the presidential election, but it’s still a very prevalent concern for those who have invested in stocks and rely on them to support them throughout their retirement years.

During Trump’s term in office, the S&P 500 rose 68%. Under the Biden Administration, the S&P 500 has risen 46%.

While there are no guarantees, it’s possible that a Trump win would benefit retirees who have invested in stocks.

Changes to Social Security and Medicare

Roughly a quarter of retirees rely almost solely on Social Security to meet their financial needs, according to the Social Security Administration. Yet, both Social Security and Medicare face insolvency, meaning neither program will be able to pay out the full benefit amount at a certain point (2036 for Medicare, 2035 for Social Security).

Like Harris, Trump has indicated support of both programs. However, he has also written, “Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security!”

This doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to eliminate tax on Social Security. But doing so could hasten the depletion of the Social Security trust funds — and lead to insolvency sooner.

Rising Housing Costs

As of July 2024, the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index found that U.S. housing prices are at an all-time high. Currently, Trump hasn’t provided specifics on how he intends to address this.

But if housing prices remain high (regardless of who wins the election), retirees who own property also could face higher property taxes or homeowners insurance rates. Those who might want to sell their current homes and relocate might also struggle with rising costs.

Possible Extension to Tax Cuts

When he was in office, Trump passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. This brought about some major changes to the tax code — both for businesses and individuals.

The TCJA repealed personal exemptions, put limits on itemized deductions (particularly those revolving around local and state taxes) and increased the standard deduction amount. It also nearly doubled the federal lifetime gift and estate tax exemption, increasing it to $13.61 million (double that for couples filing jointly) in 2024.

For individuals, these changes are temporary and will revert back to what they originally were in 2026 (not accounting for inflation). If Trump is reelected and ends up extending the TCJA, retirees with large estates could benefit.

Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.

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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: If You Live in Michigan, Here’s How Trump Might Affect Your Retirement