It's been a good week for 10x Genomics, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.2% to US$20.43. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$153m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with 10x Genomics losing US$0.32 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for 10x Genomics

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from 10x Genomics' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$648.8m in 2024. This would reflect a credible 2.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 32% to US$1.36. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$662.2m and losses of US$1.60 per share in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have fallen somewhat, 10x Genomics'future looks a little different to the past, with a notable improvement in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$27.17, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic 10x Genomics analyst has a price target of US$50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$16.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that 10x Genomics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that 10x Genomics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$27.17, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for 10x Genomics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - 10x Genomics has 4 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.