GM pushes back Investor Day due to UAW strike and analysts say they know what that means

General Motors is postponing its annual Investor Day next month to focus on reaching a new labor agreement with the United Auto Workers for GM's 48,000 UAW-represented employees.

But the automaker is expected to provide the financial impact it has incurred so far from the ongoing UAW strike against the Detroit Three when it reports third-quarter earnings results on Oct. 24.

Each year, GM holds an Investor Day, typically in October or November, to lay out its financial forecasts for investors and go over its business model, future products, revenue opportunities and other key aspects of its business. Last year, for example, GM told investors it would make more money than expected and its electric vehicles would be profitable by 2025.

This year's meeting was scheduled to take place Nov. 16.

General Motors Chair and CEO Mary Barra addresses investors Thursday, Nov. 17, 2022, at a meeting in New York, New York.
General Motors Chair and CEO Mary Barra addresses investors Thursday, Nov. 17, 2022, at a meeting in New York, New York.

GM spokesman Jim Cain confirmed to the Detroit Free Press that the automaker told investors last week that it would hold its investor day "in the first part of next year since our leadership team is currently focused on labor negotiations."

Another GM spokesman, David Caldwell, added that the event is being rescheduled because "our leadership team’s focus right now is on securing a new labor agreement in U.S."

A sign there's no end in sight for the UAW strike?

The UAW went on strike Sept. 15 targeting one plant at each of the Detroit Three: Ford Motor Co., GM and Stellantis, the company that makes Dodge, Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Fiat cars.

The UAW has since expanded strike targets to include 38 parts distribution centers owned by GM and Stellantis, and more assembly plants including Ford's Kentucky Truck plant in Louisville where it builds its most profitable vehicles: the Ford F-Series Super Duty pickup, Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator SUVs. There are about 34,000 UAW members currently on strike.

Striking Ford Motor Company employees represented by the UAW and Local 900 picket on the sidewalk across the entrance to Gate 9 at the Michigan Assembly in Wayne blocking independent truck drivers from getting into the plant on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023. A member of the Teamsters told the truckers that the strikers would be here all day and that it would be impossible for them to pull in for their deliveries or pickups.

GM's planned investor day was still a month out, therefore, GM's move to delay it signals to some on Wall Street that a tentative agreement is not in the near future.

"That’s a sign they aren’t expecting an end soon," said David Whiston, auto analyst at Morningstar. "I only see this ending in October if the automakers give the union everything it’s asking for, which I don’t think is likely."

The UAW did not respond to comment for this article. GM spokesman David Barnas said "the talks continue" with the UAW.

UAW demands create a 'time of uncertainty'

The UAW's demands include winning back much of what it lost in 2007-09 during the Great Recession: a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), an end to tier wages, reinstatement of traditional pensions and retiree health care.

The union also wants a 40% wage increase across the life of the contract. While the three automakers have offered a 20% wage increase or more and some form of a restoration of COLA and ending tiers so that all workers make the same, many labor experts agree the automakers are not going to return pensions or retiree health care because they are too costly. In GM and Stellantis' cases, it led the companies to seek federal bankruptcy protection.

Wedbush Securities Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst Dan Ives told the Detroit Free Press that GM could get a tentative agreement with the UAW before Nov. 16, but it feels more like "an entrenched" battle. GM moving the date indicates it does not expect "this is going to be a roses and champagne" month.

Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush Securities
Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush Securities

"The UAW debacle has been a torpedo for GM, Ford and Stellantis and there’s no way that (GM CEO) Mary (Barra) and the team could hold an Investor Day when the foundation of the company is up in the air due to this UAW torpedo," Ives said. "It’s created such a time of uncertainty in what should have been a period of celebration going into a transformational electric vehicle (EV) cycle."

GM recently started building and selling the new Chevrolet Blazer EV and it has plans to launch several new EVs later this year as it moves to selling all EVs by 2035. It has promised to invest $35 billion through 2025 to fund the transition to EVs and autonomous cars.

Estimated costs of the strike

GM is not alone in hitting pause on industry events. On Tuesday, Stellantis said because of the ongoing UAW strike it has canceled its plans for next year’s CES, the massive technology expo held each January in Las Vegas. The company attributed its decision to the costs of the strike.

“(The) company is executing comprehensive countermeasures to mitigate financial impacts and preserve capital, and will continue to demonstrate its transformation into a mobility tech company through other means," Stellantis said in a statement.

When asked about the financial impact of the strike on Stellantis, spokeswoman Shawn Morgan told the Free Press on Tuesday, “We aren’t commenting at this time.”

Likewise, Ford has not released any financial figures in relation to the strike's cost or loss of income to it. At the end of the third-quarter GM confirmed the strike had cost it about $200 million in lost revenue due to the stop of production the GM facilities impacted by the strike. GM said then that it secured a $6 billion line of credit as protection against mounting costs. In August, Ford obtained a $4 billion line of credit to help it manage through a potential strike.

Factory workers and UAW union members form a picket line outside the Ford Motor Co. Kentucky Truck Plant in the early morning hours on Oct. 12, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. UAW leadership announced that the Kentucky Truck Plant would be the latest automotive manufacturing facility to join the nationwide strike.
Factory workers and UAW union members form a picket line outside the Ford Motor Co. Kentucky Truck Plant in the early morning hours on Oct. 12, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. UAW leadership announced that the Kentucky Truck Plant would be the latest automotive manufacturing facility to join the nationwide strike.

In an Oct. 16 investor note obtained by the Free Press, J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman wrote that he estimated GM's overall costs associated with the strike to date is about $507 million and for Ford about $517 million. But the strike at Ford's Kentucky Truck plant makes Brinkman estimate the strike will cost Ford much more than it will GM going forward. He estimated it is costing GM about $21 million a day and Ford $44 million a day.

Ives said $21 million a day is conservative. He said if the strike passes eight weeks, the cost to GM could mount to $1.5 billion to $2 billion, and that's assuming the UAW takes no further strike action at more GM facilities. Presently, the UAW has struck two GM assembly plants and 18 parts distribution centers. GM has had to lay off 2,300 employees at other facilities as fallout from the strike.

Neither GM nor Ford would comment on the cost estimates from the strike, but Cain said GM will provide more insight on the costs from the strike on Oct. 24.

Ives said what is more concerning to him beyond the financial cost is what it could mean for GM's future.

“If this goes back to mid-November, we get into the danger zone of what could be significant delays in the EV strategy in 2024," Ives said. "It’s frustrating for investors to watch a strategy that was years in the making to go up in flames."

More: GM delays production of 2 EV pickups, plans Orion Assembly plant restart for 2025

More: UAW strike hits 1 month mark as some workers grow impatient: Where things stand

Free Press staff writers Eric D. Lawrence and Phoebe Wall Howard contributed to this article.

Contact Jamie L. LaReau: jlareau@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. Read more on General Motors and sign up for our autos newsletterBecome a subscriber.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Wall Street worries no UAW agreement is near as GM delays Investor Day

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