Gas prices in 'glacial grind higher' for now — here's why

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Gas prices have reversed their downward trend, ticking higher over the past week as oil has also risen in price.

The national average at the pump sat at $3.13 per gallon on Tuesday, up $0.05 from a week ago, but still $0.38 lower from exactly one year ago, according to AAA data.

Prices at the pump stalled at $3.07 a gallon earlier this month after dropping by more than $0.80 per gallon since September.

This week's reversal raises the question of whether drivers can expect higher prices in the coming weeks.

“The national average for gas will likely maintain a glacial grind higher for the immediate future,” Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson, said recently.

Gasoline has been following the increase in crude oil prices, which have risen about $5 per barrel since the beginning of the year.

EMPORIA, KANSAS - JANUARY 24: THE Price of gasoline has increased by 20 cents a gallon in just 3 days. JANUARY 24, 2024Credit: Mark Reinstein/MediaPunch /IPX
The prices at a BP gas station in Emporia, Kan., Jan. 24, 2024.(Mark Reinstein/MediaPunch /IPX) (Mark Reinstein/MediaPunch/IPx)

"Heightened tensions in the Middle East have the market pricing in a higher probability of a supply disruption," Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told Yahoo Finance.

“Although no oil production has been shut in, tankers avoiding transiting through the Red Sea and Suez Canal have added to logistics cost, and the consumer is seeing that in higher gasoline prices,” he added.

Further upward pressure on prices stemming from cold weather's impacts on refineries has been mitigated by higher-than-expected gasoline stockpiles and weaker-than-expected seasonal demand.

"However, in a few short months, refiners will be switching to the more expensive summer grade of gasoline and price[s] will rise $0.20 to $0.30 per gallon by Memorial Day," said Lipow.

Crude oil futures for West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) ticked higher on Tuesday, trading above $77 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F) futures also advanced, exchanging hands north of $82 per barrel.

Last week crude gained more than 6% amid continued attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea area and counterstrikes by the US and its allies.

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @ines_ferre.

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