Franco-Nevada Corporation (TSE:FNV) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$260m revenue coming in 3.3% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 missed the mark badly, arriving some 46% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Franco-Nevada

Taking into account the latest results, Franco-Nevada's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$1.11b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Franco-Nevada forecast to report a statutory profit of US$3.03 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.04 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CA$202, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Franco-Nevada at CA$263 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$171. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.1% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 13% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Franco-Nevada is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$202, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Franco-Nevada. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Franco-Nevada analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.