With the business potentially at an important milestone, we thought we'd take a closer look at Geron Corporation's (NASDAQ:GERN) future prospects. Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. The US$2.8b market-cap company posted a loss in its most recent financial year of US$184m and a latest trailing-twelve-month loss of US$220m leading to an even wider gap between loss and breakeven. The most pressing concern for investors is Geron's path to profitability – when will it breakeven? In this article, we will touch on the expectations for the company's growth and when analysts expect it to become profitable.

See our latest analysis for Geron

Consensus from 7 of the American Biotechs analysts is that Geron is on the verge of breakeven. They expect the company to post a final loss in 2025, before turning a profit of US$117m in 2026. So, the company is predicted to breakeven approximately 2 years from today. What rate will the company have to grow year-on-year in order to breakeven on this date? Using a line of best fit, we calculated an average annual growth rate of 68%, which is rather optimistic! If this rate turns out to be too aggressive, the company may become profitable much later than analysts predict.

Given this is a high-level overview, we won’t go into details of Geron's upcoming projects, though, keep in mind that by and large a biotech has lumpy cash flows which are contingent on the product type and stage of development the company is in. This means, large upcoming growth rates are not abnormal as the company is beginning to reap the benefits of earlier investments.

Before we wrap up, there’s one aspect worth mentioning. The company has managed its capital prudently, with debt making up 27% of equity. This means that it has predominantly funded its operations from equity capital, and its low debt obligation reduces the risk around investing in the loss-making company.

Next Steps:

This article is not intended to be a comprehensive analysis on Geron, so if you are interested in understanding the company at a deeper level, take a look at Geron's company page on Simply Wall St. We've also put together a list of pertinent aspects you should further research:

1. Valuation: What is Geron worth today? Has the future growth potential already been factored into the price? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether Geron is currently mispriced by the market.

2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Geron’s board and the CEO’s background.

3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.