As you might know, CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) just kicked off its latest second-quarter results with some very strong numbers. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$92m exceeding analyst forecasts by 36%, and statutory losses of US$0.03 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for CareDx

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering CareDx are now predicting revenues of US$319.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 7.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 73% to US$0.82. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$278.8m and US$1.42 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

It will come as no surprise to learn thatthe analysts have increased their price target for CareDx 43% to US$27.50on the back of these upgrades. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CareDx at US$32.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$22.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of CareDx'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 18% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 18% annually. It's clear that while CareDx's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that CareDx will grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for CareDx going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that CareDx is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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