The quarterly results for Dynavax Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ:DVAX) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues of US$74m fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of US$0.08 an impressive 28% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Dynavax Technologies after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Dynavax Technologies

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Dynavax Technologies from five analysts is for revenues of US$281.6m in 2024. If met, it would imply a solid 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 51% to US$0.20. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$284.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.16 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The average the analysts price target fell 5.1% to US$24.60, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Dynavax Technologies analyst has a price target of US$29.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Dynavax Technologies shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Dynavax Technologies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 27% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 35% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Dynavax Technologies' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Dynavax Technologies following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Dynavax Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Dynavax Technologies that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.