Colony Multifamily Mortgage Trust 2014-1 -- Moody's upgrades two and affirm one class of Colony Multifamily Mortgage Trust 2014-1

Rating Action: Moody's upgrades two and affirm one class of Colony Multifamily Mortgage Trust 2014-1Global Credit Research - 17 Feb 2022Approximately $21 million of structured securities affectedNew York, February 17, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has upgraded the ratings on two classes and affirmed the rating on one class in Colony Multifamily Mortgage Trust 2014-1, Commercial Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2014-1 as follows:Cl. E, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Feb 10, 2021 Upgraded to A1 (sf)Cl. F, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Feb 10, 2021 Upgraded to Ba1 (sf)Cl. X*, Affirmed Caa1 (sf); previously on Feb 10, 2021 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)* Reflects Interest Only ClassesRATINGS RATIONALEThe ratings on the two P&I classes were upgraded primarily due to an increase in credit support resulting from loan paydowns and amortization. The pool has paid down 20% since Moody's last review and 86% since securitization. In addition, the entire pool is secured by either multifamily or manufactured housing properties and the remaining loans have amortized 21% since securitization.The rating on the IO Class, Cl. X, was affirmed due to the credit quality of its referced classes. The IO Class references all P&I classes including Class G, which is not rated by Moody's.Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of 6.4% of the current pooled balance, compared to 9.8% at Moody's last review. Moody's base expected loss plus realized losses is now 2.8% of the original pooled balance, compared to 3.5% at the last review. Moody's provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255.Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. Performance that falls outside the given range can indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had previously expected. Additionally, significant changes in the 5-year rolling average of 10-year US Treasury rates will impact the magnitude of the interest rate adjustment and may lead to future rating actions.Factors that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include a significant amount of loan paydowns or amortization, an increase in the pool's share of defeasance or an improvement in pool performance.Factors that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include a decline in the performance of the pool, loan concentration, an increase in realized and expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans or interest shortfalls.METHODOLOGY UNDERLYING THE RATING ACTIONThe principal methodology used in rating all classes except interest-only classes was "US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securitizations Methodology" published in November 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1258254. The methodologies used in rating interest-only classes were "US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securitizations Methodology" published in November 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1258254 and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only (IO) Securities" published in February 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1111179. Please see the list of ratings at the top of this announcement to identify which classes are interest-only (indicated by the *). Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.DEAL PERFORMANCEAs of the January 21, 2022 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 86% to $44.7 million from $315.9 million at securitization. The certificates are collateralized by sixty-seven mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 4% of the pool, with the top ten loans (excluding defeasance) constituting 34% of the pool.Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure the diversity of loan sizes, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including the risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 46, down from a Herf of 54 at Moody's last review.Thirty-six loans, constituting 55% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans that meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of Moody's ongoing monitoring of a transaction, the agency reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could affect performance.Forteen loans have been liquidated from the pool, resulting in an aggregate realized loss of $6.1 million (for an average loss severity of 40%).One loan, the Quiet Harbor Estates Loan ($0.9 million -- 1.9% of the pool), is currently in special servicing. The loan is secured by a 70 unit multi family property located in Creston, IA. The property was 69% occupied as of year-end 2015 and the borrower has not provided more recent financial statements. The loan transferred to special servicing in February 2021 and is more than 90 days delinquent. The loan has amortized 15% since securitization, but as of the January 2022 remittance statement the loan was last paid through its March 2021Moody's has also assumed a high default probability for three poorly performing loans, constituting 3.5% of the pool). The loans have failed to report financials and had previously exhibited declines in performance. Moody's has estimated an aggregate loss of $0.9 million (a 37% expected loss on average) from these troubled and specially serviced loans.The credit risk of loans is determined primarily by two factors: 1) Moody's assessment of the probability of default, which is largely driven by each loan's DSCR, and 2) Moody's assessment of the severity of loss upon a default, which is largely driven by each loan's loan-to-value ratio, referred to as the Moody's LTV or MLTV. As described in the CMBS methodology used to rate this transaction, we make various adjustments to the MLTV. We adjust the MLTV for each loan using a value that reflects capitalization (cap) rates that are between our sustainable cap rates and market cap rates. We also use an adjusted loan balance that reflects each loan's amortization profile. The MLTV reported in this publication reflects the MLTV before the adjustments described in the methodology.Moody's received full year 2020 operating results for 50% of the pool, and partial year 2021 operating results for 40% of the pool (excluding specially serviced and defeased loans). Moody's weighted average conduit LTV is 92%, compared to 96% at Moody's last review. Moody's conduit component excludes loans with structured credit assessments, defeased and CTL loans, and specially serviced and troubled loans. Moody's net cash flow (NCF) reflects a weighted average haircut of 32% to the most recently available net operating income (NOI). Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 10.4%.Moody's actual and stressed conduit DSCRs are 1.38X and 1.38X, respectively, compared to 1.37X and 1.35X at the last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stress rate the agency applied to the loan balance.The top three conduit loans represent 13% of the pool balance. The largest loan is the Park Villa Apartments Loan ($1.9 million -- 4.3% of the pool), which is secured by 96-unit, Class B, garden-style multifamily property located in San Bernardino, CA. The loan is on the servicer's watchlist and being monitored for failure to submit financials since 2019. The property last reported 94% occupancy as of year-end 2019. The loan has amortized 24% since securitization and had an NOI DSCR of over 3.00X in 2019. The loan is fully amortizing and matures in June 2035. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 53% and 2.37X, respectively.The second largest loan is the 1533 Boston Avenue Loan ($1.9 million -- 4.3% of the pool), which is secured by 55-unit, Class B, garden-style multifamily property located in Bridgeport, CT. The property was 98% occupied as of June 2021 compared to 100% as of year-end 2019 and 96% at securitization. The property's performance has improved since securitization due to higher revenues and as of June 2021 the NOI DSCR was 2.51X. The loan is fully amortizing, has amortized 21% since securitization and matures in May 2037. The loan is full recourse to the borrower and Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 70% and 1.42X, respectively.The third largest loan is the Laramie Apartments Loan ($1.9 million -- 4.2% of the pool), which is secured by 48-unit, Class B, garden-style multifamily property located in Laramie, WY. The property has been 100% occupied since securitization with stable performance and had a NOI DSCR of 1.32X as of September 2021. The loan is fully amortizing, has amortized 19% since securitization and matures in July 2037. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 81% and 1.33X, respectively.REGULATORY DISCLOSURESFor further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody's estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.Moody's did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288235.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. Dariusz Surmacz Vice President - Senior Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody's Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. 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