Chipotle Q4 earnings fall short of Wall Street expectations, but digital drives sales boom

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Chipotle (CMG) on Tuesday reported mixed fourth-quarter results, with the fast-food giant reaping strong sales driven by COVID-19 era digital orders, even as profit fell short of expectations.

Here’s what the California-based company reported, compared to Wall Street’s expectations, according to a Bloomberg consensus estimate:

  • Revenue: $1.61B versus $1.61 billion expected

  • Adj. earnings per share (EPS): $3.48 versus $3.72 per share expected

  • Same-store sales: 5.7% versus 6.09% expected

During the quarter, the closely-followed comparable-store sales increased 5.7%, driven by a whopping 177.2% in digital transactions, which accounted for 49% of sales. Still, shares of Chipotle fell by 3.29% in after-market trading, as investors digested the report.

"Expanding access and convenience through our digital ecosystem has kept the Chipotle brand relevant and with world class talent, an inclusive culture, strong business fundamentals and deep financial strength, we are well prepared to emerge even stronger post-COVID,” chairman and CEO Brian Niccol said.

During the fourth-quarter, the company opened 61 new restaurants — including two relocations — and closed one, even as the surge in COVID-19 infections swamped the U.S. economy.

All told, the strength of takeout was a testament to Chipotle’s bottom line. For the full year of 2020, the company opened a total of 161 new restaurants, including six relocations, and closed nine, bringing the total restaurant count at year-end to 2,768 locations. All 161 new restaurants include a drive-through “Chipotlane,” — bringing the total number to 170.

‘Middle stages of a turnaround’

For 2021, the company plans to open 200 new restaurants, “which assumes minimal construction and permit delays related to COVID-19.” However, the company did not provide fiscal year 2021 guidance for restaurant sales growth.

In a note earlier this month, Peter Saleh of BTIG sounded an optimistic note about the journey ahead for Chipotle. With a raised price target of $1,600 and a “Buy” rating, Saleh emphasized that the fast-food giant is in the “middle stages of its sales and unit economic turnaround.”

Citing the impact of ‘Chipotlanes,’ the analyst said they were “much more efficient than a typical drive-thru experience, eliminating the ordering and payment friction, while at the same time providing convenience and speed of service.”

He also considers this a major perk for third-party delivery drivers like Uber (UBER), Grubhub (GRUB) since they “no longer need to get out of their car and enter the restaurant to retrieve orders.”

At the end of January, Chipotle also announced plans to test car-side pickup in San Jose. The pilot includes 29 restaurants in California with plans to roll out nationally later this year.

Menu innovation is also in focus as the company tests Smoked Brisket in select markets, showing “encouraging results” according to Niccol in the earnings call, recently launched cilantro-lime cauliflower rice and the possibility of a nationwide launch of a quesadilla in the future.

This comes as foot traffic at the restaurant chain continues to suffer, as the confirmed cases of COVID-19 grow and the troubled rollout of a vaccine continues to dominate headlines. From February of 2020 to January 2021 foot traffic at Chipotle restaurants in the U.S. is down 37%, according to Gravy Analytics.

BTIG’s Saleh notes this as a downside scenario, with the potential for same-store sales to reverse, “and revert towards flat or negative given recent spike in coronavirus cases and paused re-opening.”

John Ivankoe of J.P. Morgan, however remains neutral with a price target of $1,165.00. “Chipotle still has opportunity to grow comps in fiscal year 2021 due to dining rooms reopening and pricing. The company seems to be “teasing” some higher revenue targets in the U.S.”

Brooke DiPalma is a producer and reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma.

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