Tariffs on imports from China may not have such a dramatic effect on S&P 500 earnings, according to new analysis from Barclays.

“We estimate that while the effect on [2019] S&P 500 (^GSPC) earnings is relatively modest at ~2%, there is substantial variation across sectors, with Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Industrials the most affected,” wrote Barclays analysts Maneesh Deshpande and Emmanuel Cau in a note to clients.

The Consumer Discretionary sector could see a more than 7% ding to its 2019 earnings per share, while Information Technology, faces a 6% effect, according to Barclays.

“As for the effect on U.S. corporate profits, the level of international sales is not a good proxy to estimate the effect of tariffs imposed by China on U.S. goods, as what really matters is the level of actual exports and imports,” the analysts wrote, adding that the aforementioned estimates don’t account for possible decreases in CAPEX spending as a result of tariff uncertainty, a dynamic that could affect stock prices.

Still, aside from Barclays’ analysis, S&P 500 earnings estimates have been coming down in recent weeks. For the third quarter, Wall Street is now expecting a 0.3% decline in year-over-year earnings growth, according to FactSet, compared to a prior forecast of a 0.2% gain. The sector that is expected to post the largest decline in earnings is Information Technology.

“Our U.S.-China trade war basket that comprises [of] names that we expect to be affected negatively by the trade war has significantly underperformed recently,” the analysts noted. “More importantly, despite the increased optimism about a potential truce during the G20 meeting, these stocks have not substantially outperformed over the past week.”

Barclays’ base case is for tariffs to be imposed in the remaining $300 billion worth of imports from China, with the likelihood for exemptions.

“The U.S. administration put five more Chinese tech entities on the trade blacklist a week ahead of the [G20] summit,” the analysts wrote, referring to the continued tensions between the two nations.

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Scott Gamm is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @ScottGamm.

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