Investors in Cadre Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CDRE) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.1% to close at US$33.90 following the release of its second-quarter results. Revenues were US$144m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.31 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 15%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Cadre Holdings

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Cadre Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$574.4m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a notable 8.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.5% to US$1.04. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$569.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.07 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$41.43, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Cadre Holdings at US$48.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$35.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Cadre Holdings shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Cadre Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.0% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Cadre Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Cadre Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Cadre Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Cadre Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.