Pre-Owned Rolex Prices Just Keep Falling—Here Are the Best Models To Buy Right Now
With Watches and Wonders as well as the spring auction season behind us, the watch market is calm and steady. And, generally speaking, 2024 is turning out to be a relatively stable year for watches. Prices are down, and supply is up—and that spells “buyer’s market.” This is especially true of pre-owned Rolex.
As collectors, the problem with market-wide predictions and recommendations—and even simple observations—is that individual brands, models and even specific references can be moving in directions at odds with the general market. In May this year I noted that pre-owned Cartier and Breitling had dropped in value during Q1, and yet the Cartier Panthère rose 19.51 percent, while the Breitling Navitimer went up 18 percent. So, when people ask if it’s a good time to buy a watch, I always answer, “Depends on which watch.” We offer this caveat for Rolex, as well, and will use data to home in on the good deals.
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Despite a few notable anomalies (which you’ll find below), right now is an excellent time to buy vintage, neo-vintage and, especially, recent-model pre-owned Rolex sports watches. Using Chrono 24’s ChronoPulse watch market index to gain better insight, we are seeing anecdotal remarks from across the wwatch world confirmed by data. Even in the past month alone (August of 2024), the prices have continued on a steady fall.
We spoke with Eric Wind of Wind Vintage to get his feel for the current Rolex market, and he told us that, “People don’t realize they can suddenly go buy a modern Rolex for less than it would cost at retail. There was all this hysteria, and so that surprises people. Especially Subs and Sea-Dwellers, those are way down.”
If you know which references to look for and how to assess condition, you can walk away with a Rolex Submariner, GMT-Master, Explorer II, or Oyster Perpetual 41 for far less than you would have just a couple years ago—in some cases, thousands less. And if you’re thinking of the purchase as an investment, you would do well to consider neo-vintage Rolex right now.
A fair warning from Eric Wind: “Even a very recent Rolex needs to be checked out before you go swimming with it. People assume that because it’s a modern Rolex, it’ll be waterproof, but you need to get it checked out.” His point is well taken, as rubber gaskets can wear out, and you can’t be sure whether the previous owner didn’t overwork the crown, or whether the watch was recently serviced.
With warnings and caveats in place, let’s get into this buyer’s market.
Neo-Vintage and Current Model Subs
The five-digit Submariners (1980-2000s) are very tasty in style due to the aluminum bezel inserts—and if they’re dated before 1984-ish, you’ll get matte dials with painted markers for full-on vintage vibes (post-1983 Subs feature gloss dials with white gold marker surrounds). To get a sense of where the five-digit Subs are headed, ChronoPulse reports that the Submariner reference 16610 (which is post-1984 with glossy dial, gold indices, and caliber 3135) is down by about 10 percent over the last 12 months, putting many examples well below $10,000. We’ve even seen a few decent examples below $8,000. You can expect to pay more for 16800s with matte dials, however, as they’re more “vintage.”
If you’re interested in the modern six-digit references with the Cerachom (ceramic) bezel inserts and updated movements, you’ll be pleased to learn that the Rolex Submariner reference 124060 (the current no-date version released in 2020) is down by abour 5 percent percent over the past year, according to the ChronoPulse Index. If you want a date complication, the current reference 126610LN is down by four percent. This sets these desirable models right around retail prices (plus tax). This is a common benchmark for used pricing. The 126610 with date can cost right around $13,000 with box and papers as of this writing, and the 124060 no-date model can be had for just over $10,000.
Maybe scoring a sub at retail isn’t quite the great deal is seemed just a few years ago.
Surprisingly, the all-green “Hulk” reference 116610 of 2010—which was once downright scarce a few years ago—just shot down, as well. During the pandemic you’d be paying over $26,000 for a Hulk, but now they’re available for below $17,000. Shocking, really.
True Vintage Submariners
Though ChronoPulse doesn’t report data on the four-digit references (World War II to ~1979), we’d recommend looking at the revered 1680 Submariner with date, which Rolex produced with “SUBMARINER” written in either red text or white. The revered “Red Sub” always costs more. We’re seeing good looking 1680s with white text down around $14,000, while Red Subs closer to $20,000 and up. You can check out a recent edition of our weekly column Shopping Time for some excellent deals on vintage Subs.
A caveat: Vintage prices tend to operate on their own calculus, as trends (and thus supply), as well as condition, drive that market in less predictable ways. In short, you’ll see a very wide variation in pricing, though the trend is generally down.
The Five-Digit GMT-Master II Is Looking Reasonable (Again)
The coveted GMT-Master II models are also down, but the changes are less drastic than with the Subs. Discontinued models like the steel reference 126710LN “Pepsi” on Jubilee bracelet appears to be holdin steady, but five-digit reference 16710 Pepsi GMT-Master II models are down by over seven percent over past 12 months. This means you’ll pay under $10,000 for a nice GMT Master II. That’s way down, and given the rising prices of watches generally, not a horrible deal at all.
Condition of five-digit GMT-Master II references is especially influential on pricing. The fading of the bezel insert tends to send some collectors head-over-heals if it’s especially ghosted (sun bleached), while excessive case polishing (which was common in the five-digit era) will drive prices downward. All this to say, there’s a wide range of pricing for GMT-Master II references, but if you’re looking for a very cool watch to wear every day, a relatively clean one can be had under $10,000.
Explorer II Prices Falling
If there’s a collector’s Rolex, it is the 40 mm Explorer II 16570, especially with a “polar” (white) dial. These have always been the less desirable GMTs from Rolex, but they’re very popular with watch enthusiasts, partly because they were reasonably priced. As it turns out, the 40 mm 16570 with a black dial is down over the past year, but fluctuates a bit more than other models (likely due to recent journalism on the 16570, as well as growing demand for smaller watches). Meanwhile the six-digit 42 mm 226570 is also significantly in the same time period.
You can always expect to pay more for white dials than black ones with Explorer II references, but the prices are really down: Around $8000 for a black dial, and as little as $8500 for a white dial as of this writing. As always, condition, service history and box and papers will be important.
Big Datejusts Down, Little Datejusts Up
A 41 mm Rolex Datejust used to be a really big deal to own, but tastes have decidedly changed toward smaller watches, and even toward small dress watches. We are fairly confident that these trends have driven prices for the 41 mm Datejust down a full 14 percent over the past year, which really is a stunning result. Meanwhile, the 36 mm Datejust is up by 55 over 12 months, and continues to spike. Who would have guessed this?
The Datejust’s impressive performance may also indicate the growing preference for dressier watches. Based on anecdotal reports from fellow collectors, that assessment feels right. (Note: ChronoPulse doesn’t offer data on the 36 mm Oyster Perpetuals.)
The Daytona, Milgauss, and More
I think the picture we’re painting, supported by data, is relatively clear: This is a Rolex buyer’s market, with some exceptions for specific models.
For example, steel Rolex Daytonas remain expensive overall (roughly double what you’d pay at retail for a Daytona), and yet the Rolex Daytona 116500LN from 2016 is down over 12 percent over since this time last year. Even the discontinued Milgauss 116400GV is down four percent in that time. Daytonas and discontinued models going down is a clear sign of the buyer’s market.
As with buying any pre-owned watch: Do your research, find a great example, and take note of whether you’re looking at an anomaly that shot up in price, or if you’re getting a good deal because that model’s price has fallen. You may also want to check out our video offering tips on buying vintage and pre-owned watches.
As always, happy collecting!
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