President Donald Trump is facing a second Congressional effort to impeach him over his role in inciting a deadly riot on Capitol Hill, an effort that predictive market traders expect to bear fruit.

However, whether he’ll be successfully removed from office before January 20 is another matter entirely, with data suggesting the effort will likely fall short — again.

Political betting market Smarkets is pricing in a 91% chance that Trump era will end with the incumbent bearing the ignominious distinction of being the first president ever to be impeached twice.

Yet, Smarkets traders also see equivalent odds that Trump will once again survive the effort, just in time to see President-elect Joe Biden take his place in the Oval Office. US-Bookies.com also forecast a similar outcome, with nearly 89% odds of Trump being impeached, but only an 11% probability that he gets removed.

Political markets suggest that while Trump’s era could end with another impeachment “it may not be the end of his presidency,” Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets’ head of political markets, told Yahoo Finance Live.

With Congressional Republicans seen likely to frustrate the effort, or at least drag it out, “it's not a given that impeachment is actually going to remove him from office before the end of his term,” Bakhshi added. Smarkets data

‘Do I really need this distraction?’

Tuesday’s data were noteworthy, given that Smarkets and Bookies were more accurate in predicting the general election’s Electoral College outcome than major polling aggregators. Political bettors also foresaw the likelihood that Trump would refuse to accept the election results once it became clear that he had lost.

In fact, predictive markets — where bets skyrocketed to over $1 billion — outperformed sites like FiveThirtyEight and The Economist, both of which saw Biden winning a more landslide-like votes of around 350, compared to the actual result of 306-232.

On Tuesday, a defiant Trump showed virtually no remorse for a raucous siege of Congress last week, while suggesting that efforts to remove him would cause “tremendous anger.” The protest has resulted in at least three members of Congress testing positive for COVID-19, and resulted in 4 deaths on the scene. Meanwhile, the president-elect has sidestepped taking a position on his party’s efforts to dislodge Trump before the inauguration.

“I just can't see impeachment or conviction coming next week, and I just think Joe Biden, he might not say this in public, but deep down he might be thinking ‘Do I really need this distraction?’” said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments.

With an agenda chock-full of action items like a supplemental stimulus, cabinet appointments and the response to COVID-19, “I think an impeachment fight would be a huge distraction for Biden and I think he’d probably be pleased if it went away,” Valliere told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.

Republican unity has begun to show cracks, with at least two GOP Senators called for the president to resign amid swirling speculation that his cabinet could invoke the 25th amendment to remove him — an event that US-Bookies bettors assign 4 to1 odds.

However, Trump’s Congressional allies have resisted the Democratic-led effort, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy rejecting impeachment in favor of a censure. Of course, when and how the Trump era ultimately ends is anyone’s guess — a reflection of his volatile tenure.

“I think [Trump is] the most unpredictable president the u.s. has ever had and everyone is just piling in on these markets because they want to see how this thing will unfold,” said Smarkets’ Bakhshi. “They want to have their view and they want to kind of better understand what's going to happen.”

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Javier David is an editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow Javier on Twitter: @TeflonGeek

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