Australia’s Burst of Hiring Sees Traders Pare Rate-Cut Bets
(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s powerful stretch of hiring extended into September and the unemployment rate held steady, prompting a rise in the currency as traders scaled back bets on the Reserve Bank’s first interest-rate cut.
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The currency climbed as much as 0.4% and the yield on policy-sensitive three-year government bonds jumped to the highest since July 31 after data Thursday showed employment rose 64,100, more than double estimates, and the jobless rate held at a downwardly revised 4.1%.
Both the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate climbed to records, indicating more people were seeking and securing work. Overnight-indexed swaps now show a 70% chance the RBA will begin an easing cycle in February, having fully priced a 25 basis-point rate cut prior to the jobs data.
“This will keep the RBA very cautious to join the global easing cycle,” said Eugenia Victorino, head of Asia strategy at SEB in Singapore. “At this point, risks are pointing to an even later start to the cutting cycle than our forecast of February 2025.”
Australia’s jobs growth has been remarkably strong over the past year, climbing 3.1% in the period to September even as the economy slowed to a crawl. Thursday’s data will be welcomed by Governor Michele Bullock and her colleagues who are trying to engineer a soft landing as they bring down inflation.
The RBA has left its key rate at a 12-year-high of 4.35% this year and Bullock has all-but ruled out easing in the near-term. Today’s release, along with third-quarter inflation due later this month, will be important inputs for the RBA’s Nov. 4-5 policy meeting.
“We see no incentive to shift from our call that the RBA won’t even start cutting rates until 1Q 2025, and there is a chance that even this is too aggressive,” said Robert Carnell, head of Asia-Pacific research, ING Groep NV.
In minutes of its Sept. 23-24 policy meeting released last week, the RBA’s board “judged that labor market conditions in Australia were still tight relative to both full employment and conditions in other economies.”
It pointed out the share of unemployed people finding jobs was high and the share of workers losing their jobs was “very low.”
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“Despite very weak economic growth, contracting private demand and a substantial deterioration in job ads, demand for workers looks rock solid. We think the job market will eventually weaken. But until there are clear signs that’s happening, the RBA will be comfortable staying on hold.”
— James McIntyre, economist
To read the full note, click here
Thursday’s jobs report also showed:
Full time roles surged 51,600 while part-time gained 12,500
The employment-to-population ratio increased to 64.4%
The participation rate advanced to 67.2%
Underemployment decreased to 6.3%
“It’s difficult to imagine the RBA cutting rates when labor market conditions are so tight, productivity growth so dreadful and wage pressures still considerable,” said Callam Pickering, economist at global job site Indeed Inc. “It feels like something needs to change to force the RBA’s hand.”
--With assistance from Shinjini Datta and Michael G. Wilson.
(Adds comments from economists, updates market reaction.)
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