It's shaping up to be a tough period for Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATRA), which a week ago released some disappointing second-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 23% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$3.10. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Atara Biotherapeutics

After the latest results, the five analysts covering Atara Biotherapeutics are now predicting revenues of US$121.8m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 95% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 30% to US$25.81. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$111.0m and losses of US$16.94 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Atara Biotherapeutics even after this update; although they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a massive increase in per-share losses.

Spiting the revenue upgrading, the average price target fell 86% to US$14.25, clearly signalling that higher forecast losses are a valuation concern. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Atara Biotherapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$25.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Atara Biotherapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Atara Biotherapeutics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 281% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 48% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 23% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Atara Biotherapeutics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Atara Biotherapeutics' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Atara Biotherapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Atara Biotherapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Atara Biotherapeutics is showing 7 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are a bit unpleasant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.