Analyst: Apple (AAPL) iPhone 16 Holiday Sales Hopes At Risk Amid ‘Disappointing Sell-Throughs’
We recently published a list of 10 Trending AI Stocks in October. Since Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 3rd on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
Tom Lee, Fundstrat co-founder, while talking to CNBC in a latest program, explained his bullish case for the market and why he believes the S&P 500 is headed to close the year “well beyond” 5,700.
“Bull markets are supported by a strong fundamentals and this is a case where not only has the economy survivie extremely high interest rates but the Fed is beginning to cut rates, and an economy that has been sort of languishing has been China. Now we have stimulus and what looks like some bazooka policies that are supporting that region, and we have a lot of cash on the sidelines. I think this is a formula for stocks to do pretty well the next three to 12 months, and that’s why we think that we would be well beyond 5700 before year-end.”
Lee said that he’s inclined to buy “risks outright” as he believes more upward momentum would come for stocks after the election.
“Small caps still have good fundamentals, earnings growth is accelerating, the media P/E is eleven times which is almost seven turns lower than the S&P so I think there is still case to be made that small-cap are starting a multi-year gain.”
For this article we picked 10 AI stocks that are making big moves on the back of latest news. With each company we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 184
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) may have reduced its iPhone 16 production for the December quarter by 3 million units, according to a supply chain check by Barclays. Analysts Tim Long and George Wang noted, “We believe AAPL may have cut roughly 3M units at a key semiconductor component for the Dec-Q, which, if confirmed, would be the earliest build cut in recent history.”
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is set to roll out its Apple Intelligence features in the U.S. starting mid-October with the iOS 18.1 update. However, the Chinese-language rollout will not begin until 2025, with Europe seeing a similarly staggered introduction.
Barclays believes iPhone shipments for the September quarter could reach 51 million units, assuming favorable channel fill. But the December quarter appears increasingly at risk due to recent order cuts, disappointing sell-throughs, a staggered Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Intelligence rollout, limited AI adoption outside the U.S., and minimal hardware differentiation. The firm maintains its Underweight rating on Apple.
Almost every bullish case on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) was built around this assumption: millions of people would rush to upgrade their iPhone because of AI features.
However, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been seeing a long-term decline in mobile carrier upgrade rates, especially postpaid, for several years. This suggests that people are holding onto their devices longer, likely due to economic factors, satisfaction with current technology, or a lack of exciting new features in recent models. This trend isn’t great for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL). Can Apple Intelligence break this trend? We’ll find out soon.
However, the assumption that we will see a huge upgrade cycle of iPhone just because of AI is big and comes with a lot of risks. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) trades at a forward PE multiple of around 35x, well above its 5-year average of nearly 27x. Its expected EPS forward long-term growth rate of 10.39% does not justify its valuation, especially with the iPhone upgrade cycle assumption. Adjusting for this growth results in a forward PEG ratio of 3.33, significantly higher than its 5-year average of 2.38.
Columbia Contrarian Core Fund stated the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) – Despite the stock falling after announcing earnings in late May, Apple regained ground toward the end of the quarter, fueled by the company’s long-awaited AI announcement at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WDC). At the conference, the company showcased some of its new AI features powered by Apple Intelligence that would be coming to Apple products and also announced a partnership with ChatGPT. Investors greatly welcomed the announcement of Apple’s AI strategy and the stock surged, passing Microsoft as the world’s most valuable company (although this hallmark wouldn’t last). Beta testing of these new features will be coming later this summer, but the initial promise and excitement looks to be a potential catalyst for an upgrade cycle, as the company looks to persuade users who have had the same smartphone for years to consider an upgrade.”
Overall, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 3rd on Insider Monkey’s list titled 10 Trending AI Stocks in October. While we acknowledge the potential of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AAPL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.