Investors in Afya Limited (NASDAQ:AFYA) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.8% to close at US$18.26 following the release of its quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of R$810m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Afya surprised by delivering a statutory profit of R$1.74 per share, a notable 16% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Afya

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Afya's six analysts is for revenues of R$3.30b in 2024. This would reflect a credible 7.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.9% to R$6.90. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$3.24b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$6.90 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$21.55, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Afya analyst has a price target of US$23.96 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.86. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Afya's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Afya's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 30% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Afya's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$21.55, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Afya. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Afya analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Afya's balance sheet, and whether we think Afya is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.