The market has been reacting in roller-coaster fashion to the coronavirus outbreak. Since Feb. 20, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) plunged 13% into correction territory, went up around 5%, down 3% and then back up 4%, bringing the total drop from the pre-coronavirus worries to about 7% — for now.
The “for now” is really key, because there isn’t that much data in yet on what’s going on economically. Every news network and pundit says a version of “well see.”
Economic data and company earnings lag far behind trading data, so while the market’s sentiment is easy to track, it takes some time for information to trickle in letting policymakers and investors know what the deal really is.
According to Deutsche Bank’s chief economist Torsten Sløk, there’s already some data.
“The first signs are already in the Chicago and ISM supplier delivery times,” Slok wrote in an email. JPMorgan pointed out this week in a research note that the survey showed increased supply times due to “virus-related issues.”
There are a lot of key dates on calendars charting economic releases economists are watching.
March 5 (every Thursday) - Weekly jobless claims
This comes out every week on Thursdays, and the labor market seems to be “weathering coronavirus for now,” Reuters reported. Weekly jobless claims didn’t go up — they actually fell 3,000 to 216,000 (seasonally adjusted).
Sløk said that this is a key indicator for “any signs that the labor market is seeing layoffs from gig employers or elsewhere.”
March 12 (every Thursday) - Weekly jobless claims
By tracking jobless claims, economy observers can see if the labor market is weakening or strengthening.
March 13 - Consumer sentiment index
“The next indicator is consumer sentiment on March 13 and 27. This is absolutely key for gauging how worried households are about the virus,” said Sløk.
March 17 - Retail sales
While sentiment is just how people feel via answering a survey, retail sales data shows “hard data for consumer spending,” Sløk pointed out, which is important in understanding how late February and March’s sales have been hit by coronavirus fears. While some products might see less activity, there’s been a run on outbreak-readiness products.
March 17 - Industrial Production and Capital Utilization
The industrial production number, compiled by the Federal Reserve, is a metric that shows how much manufacturing, mining, and utilities are producing compared to their sustainable maximum output.
This will show economists and investors “how the manufacturing industry has been dealing with the shock and to what extent supply chains have been impacted,” Sløk said.
March 19 (every Thursday) - Weekly jobless claims
March 27 - University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
This survey essentially asks people three questions: how their own financial situation is, how they view the economy short-term, and how they view the economy long-term.
These answers provide more information about how consumers are feeling about whatever’s happening. Wall Street values this data because consumer spending is a critical factor in gauging the health of the economy.
April 1 - ISM Manufacturing
The Institute for Supply Management index gives another snapshot of supplier delivery times and more — letting investors and economists know how much disruption there has been.
April 3 - March’s Bureau of Labor Statistics employment numbers
A comprehensive snapshot of the labor market during early March’s market drop and whatever we will see in the rest of the month.
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Ethan Wolff-Mann is a writer at Yahoo Finance focusing on consumer issues, personal finance, retail, airlines, and more. Follow him on Twitter @ewolffmann.
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