Stanley Cup Final: 'Rest vs. Rust' debate begins and ends with Bobrovsky

The Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights have a lot in common. From the talent on their rosters to their sweltering, nontraditional climates for ice hockey, each franchise can be described as "misfits" to a certain degree.

The Golden Knights are even built off some of the Panthers’ own castaways. Deliciously, both teams also thrive on the dominant play of superstar American forwards in Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk.

Yet, in the end, only one team will win their first Stanley Cup.

There are a lot of layers to peel back in this unexpected-yet-exciting final. No one saw this matchup coming, particularly since both goaltenders — Adin Hill and Sergei Bobrovsky — have fueled these runs, rather than just being along for the ride. Hopefully it all ends up as fun (and wild) on the ice as it looks on paper.

Underdogs, misfits … yet also not?

Heading into the playoffs, just about any team looked like an underdog compared to the record-breaking Bruins and the star-studded Oilers. Even if you work past those two sexy picks, you may have shuffled through other choices before the Golden Knights, and especially the Panthers.

Each team features plenty of the elements of true Stanley Cup contenders, though.

As the Western Conference’s top seed, you don’t need to work too hard to make a case for a good Golden Knights team steered by a respected and astute head coach in Bruce Cassidy. If you study the types of underlying stats that hint at future success, you likely would’ve viewed the Panthers as a contender in wild card’s clothing, especially just one year removed from a Presidents' Trophy after a historic regular season of their own in 2021-22

Granted, some of the surprises revolve around each team’s opponents, and how they dispatched them.

The Golden Knights faced Connor McDavid and the surging Oilers along with a dangerous Dallas Stars team, yet Vegas hasn’t faced elimination yet in these playoffs. Instead of wilting down 3-1 against the Bruins, the Panthers won six playoff games in a row and 10 of their last 11. Florida’s already defeated three of the best teams in the NHL in Boston, Toronto and Carolina, making it tougher to call them David to someone’s Goliath instead of a sleeping giant that woke up right on time.

The underdog facade slips further when you realize just how much these teams invested in recent playoff runs.

It hasn’t always been pretty, yet the Golden Knights’ pursuit of big names such as Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Alex Pietrangelo worked out (at least for now). The Panthers stumbled in their own right by coughing up first-rounders to rent Ben Chiarot and Claude Giroux, yet they weren’t scared to make another brave trade when they altered the league by landing Matthew Tkachuk.

These are teams that are paying to the salary cap ceiling, giving up draft picks to win now — and are even defying expectations by hiring a polarizing coach such as Paul Maurice in Florida's case. They both belong in the 2023 Stanley Cup Final.

Hill vs. Bob is a pretty stunning goalie matchup

No doubt about it: Sergei Bobrovsky and Adin Hill riding this high into a Stanley Cup Final matchup is baffling. If Marty McFly popped out of a DeLorean to tell you to wager on that matchup, you’d kindly tell him to leave your barn.

Put most simply: even their teams didn’t expect this from Bobrovsky or Hill. Otherwise, they would’ve been their starters from the first day of the playoffs.

Now, sure, there’s a reason Bobrovsky carries a $10M price tag beyond Dale Tallon being involved. This is a two-time Vezina winner we’re talking about. That said, it’s easy to focus on the good of "Playoff Bob" and forget how often he imploded, including with Florida. No honest person predicted a Bobrovsky playoff run strong enough to break expected goals models.

Remarkably, Adin Hill actually boasts a slightly higher save percentage (.937) than Bobrovsky (.935) in these playoffs. These two afterthoughts are playing the best hockey of their careers.

The $10-million question is whether one or both of these goalies will falter. Both the Panthers and Golden Knights are capable of pushing teams out of their comfort zones, which could bring Cinderella stories to an end.

Then again, we’ve been waiting for Bobrovsky to cool down for more than a month, so who’s to say he can’t shine for two more weeks?

Eichel vs. Tkachuk, two deep offenses square off

Who’s the best American-born forward in the NHL today? Jack Eichel and especially Matthew Tkachuk are barging into an argument once dominated by Auston Matthews.

With Tkachuk, it’s all in your face. He rubbed elbows with Charles Barkley and Shaq because of his theatrical goal celebrations.

However, there’s steak to go with that sizzle. After a career-high 109 points in the regular season, Tkachuk generated 21 points through 16 playoff games, including three OT-winners. He’s ascended from great player and fancy stats darling to an undeniable superstar. Jack Eichel isn’t far behind with 18 points in 17 games, and could have more if he converted on more Grade-A opportunities.

Truly, it’s a pleasure to watch two star players whose skills translate so seamlessly to playoff hockey.

Eichel’s transition wizardry beguiles opponents, while Tkachuk is an absolute menace on the forecheck and around the net. Both players weaponize their brilliant hockey IQs to make plays both big and small.

Tkachuk being so off-the-charts (especially this RAPM comparison from Evolving Hockey) says more about his status as one of the world’s best than it does about Eichel, who’s deeply deserving of his own moment in the sun.

This series is about far more than just Tkachuk vs. Eichel though, especially since one team may elect to avoid such strength-on-strength matchups.

Both the Panthers and Golden Knights boast star forwards with Selke-caliber two-way games: Aleksander Barkov and Mark Stone. Beyond that, there are high-quality options such as Carter Verhaeghe, William Karlsson, Sam Reinhart, Jonathan Marchessault, Anthony Duclair and Chandler Stephenson and others.

Top-heavy teams can sometimes leave you feeling unfulfilled when stars are getting a breather on the bench, but don’t expect those types of dull moments between these squads very often.

Rust vs. rest debate takes center stage

If there was a quick turnaround, it would be a big deal that the Panthers advanced on May 24 while the Golden Knights did so on May 29. Getting a break until Saturday (June 3) likely leaves Vegas as "fresh" as you can expect this time of year, though.

Instead, the "rest vs. rust" argument should mainly revolve around Bobrovsky.

On one hand, Bobrovsky is 34 years old, has seen a boat load of work this postseason, and much has been made about how much weight he lost during this run (particularly after going deep into quadruple overtime in Game 1 vs. Carolina).

On the other hand, could all of that rest make for a rusty Bobrovsky who slips back to his regular season form? Let’s be honest, there’s a reason people were caught off-guard by the Bob playoff redemption.

Defense, special teams, styles

During the regular season, neither the Panthers nor the Golden Knights were special-teams specialists. Generally speaking, the Golden Knights haven’t really found answers for a middling power play, but Florida’s cooking at a 27.9% success rate on the man advantage.

If those patterns continue, the Panthers’ superior PP could swing a series featuring two strong 5-on-5 teams.

Naturally, the even-strength battle could mutate based on how their styles clash.

When things are clicking, the Golden Knights own the neutral zone and force opposing offenses to the perimeter. Will a ferocious Florida forecheck cause Vegas to put out one-too-many fires exiting their zone, though? On the flip side, could the Panthers get burned by counter-punches, particularly when their aggressive defensemen pinch?

A tantalizing side storyline sees Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith, who were exposed by the Panthers and subsequently claimed by Vegas in the expansion draft six years ago, with an opportunity to punish their former squad en route to their first championship rings.

Each team molded former Ducks blueliners (Brandon Montour and Shea Theodore) into strong scoring threats. They both have high first-rounders playing strong playoff hockey in Aaron Ekblad and Alex Pietrangelo.

For true hockey nerds, this Cup final figures to be a treat for battles within the battle. It all makes for a really difficult series to prognosticate, too. But, let's do it anyways: Panthers in six.