Playoff drivers ponder strategy heading into Charlotte Roval elimination race

CONCORD, N.C. — Go for the win? Go for stage points? Is there a way to accomplish both goals and still advance to the next round of NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs?

The answer likely depends on where your driver sits in the Round of 12 standings entering the Bank of America Roval 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). Eight drivers will advance — either via victory or points — to the penultimate segment of the postseason, while the bottom four drivers in points will be eliminated from championship contention.

MORE: Charlotte Roval lineup | Playoffs standings

Ryan Blaney, the defending Cup Series champion, for example, sits sixth in the standings, 25 points above the elimination line. Stage points could prove pivotal to padding his cushion to the provisional elimination line, but many of the decisions made by Blaney and crew chief Jonathan Hassler will rely upon how others around Blaney’s No. 12 Team Penske Ford are faring.

“We’ve talked about all different scenarios, Jonathan and I,” Blaney said Saturday. “And you kind of see who you’re racing around, where you qualify, what points are up for grabs in the first and second stage. Just kind of realizing where you’re at, you know? So, all scenarios. And you kind of keep your mind open, you see how the race starts and kind of how it’s unfolding. But I think it’d be hard to throw away stage points unless you get in a funky scenario of, I’m not going to get any, or maybe I’m only going to get one in this stage, maybe we flip it then. So you just kind of have to have all plans and be ready to audible if you need to.”

Right at the bubble is 2020 Cup champ Chase Elliott, who sits 13 markers to the good entering a track at which he’s won twice and placed inside the top 10 four times in six starts. With a reconfigured course, he has treated his Roval preparation as if it’s a new course altogether. And while his seventh-place starting position will matter, so too will the raw speed a driver’s car will produce.

“I think a lot of it is dependent upon not just qualifying but just how much pace we have or don’t have,” Elliott said. “That’s going to dictate pretty much how you call the race right there. So I think it’s really hard for me to sit here and tell you exactly what we’re going to do, and I have no idea how competitive we are going to be or not. You know, when we strike out on a weekend where you have intentions of being fast, if that’s the case, you’d like to get some stage points somewhere.

“I think in a perfect world, you try to get some stage points in the first stage. If you have a shot to win, you probably flip the second one and hope you’re in a position to take advantage of it. Anything short of being super fast, I think you have to take advantage of the stage points and just do your best on the finish.”

On the flip side of that bubble is two-time series champion Joey Logano, sitting 13 points behind Elliott for the final transfer spot. He was hesitant to speculate what Sunday’s strategy could look like for the No. 22 Team Penske Ford, but the resounding takeaway was his affirmation that this a reasonable hill to climb.

“We need as many points as we can (get),” Logano said. “We’re definitely not out of it. Qualifying (will) help that for sure and probably help give us an idea of how we’re going to call the race, so we’ll know more after today. Yeah, I mean, 13 points is definitely doable. We can do that. We’ve got to race some of the best cars to do that, so it’s not going to be simple or easy, but it’s definitely doable.”

At the bottom of the standings pylon sits Chase Briscoe, who, at minus-32, finds himself in what he believes is must-win territory. Don’t mistake that for a state of woe, though.

“I think for us, it’s honestly better that we’re kind of in the position that we are, being 32 out or whatever it is versus 15,” Briscoe said, “just because if you’re 15 to even 20, that is doable. Where we’re 30, at least for us, we’re just looking at it as a must-win. You could maybe point your way in, but a lot of things would have to go your way. I think it honestly opens up a lot for us from a strategy standpoint of just going in with the approach of flipping the track position and everything else.

“So yeah, to be below the cut line is obviously unfortunate, but honestly, I would much rather it be 30-something points than 15 just because I think it makes it a little clearer of what you need to do from a strategy standpoint. And out of all the tracks in this round, this is the one where I feel the most confident to come and battle for the win, so hopefully we can do that.”