The Jets are looking at a long road back to contention if they sell their stars

If you look at any kind of NHL trade market analysis right now, you're going to find the Winnipeg Jets all over it.

The team is coming off a season where it snuck into the playoffs and it has three stars — goaltender Connor Hellebuyck and forwards Pierre-Luc Dubois and Mark Scheifele — entering the final year of their contracts.

None of those three seem inclined to stay with the Jets long term, and Winnipeg's team, as currently constructed, is not formidable enough to keep together for one final run at the cost of losing them in free agency for nothing after 2023-24.

To some degree, the trio is taking the choice out of Winnipeg's hands by opting not to pursue extensions, but moving on seems like the right move for a Jets club that's been treading water for the last two years with its current core.

It should be noted, said core has produced admirable results over the last few years as the Jets rank 12th in team points since 2017-18 (540), won three playoff rounds, and have failed to qualify for the postseason just once. Winnipeg hasn't had a dynasty on its hands, but respectability has been achieved.

Unfortunately for the Jets, that benchmark may prove elusive in the years to come if they pull off Hellebuyck, Dubois, and Scheifele deals — even if that's the best way forward for the franchise.

How important are the guys they're looking to trade?

Although Kyle Connor is the Jets' top offensive star, Dubois and Scheifele are crucial top-six presences for the team. The pair scored 28% of Winnipeg's goals last year and worked together on the top power-play unit.

Each player was also a staple down the middle for much of the season, even though Scheifele saw time on the wing later on. Dubois and Scheifele combined to take 49.2% of Winnipeg's faceoffs in 2022-23. A Jets team without the pair would be gutted at the top and middle of the lineup.

There's an argument to be made that Hellebuyck would be a greater loss than the other two combined. No team has leaned on a goaltender like the Jets have with the American star in recent years.

Since 2017-18, Hellebuyck has played 28 more games than any other goaltender and stopped 875 more shots. He's led the NHL in appearances and saves four times each during that span.

He's not just a workhorse, either. Among goalies who've played 200 or more games in the last six seasons, Hellebuyck ranks third in shutouts (26) and fourth with a .917 save percentage. His GSAA number in that time is plus-101.9, which would rank 30th all-time as a career total.

The Jets have been outshot in each of the last five seasons, and without elite goaltending, their results would look far worse.

What are they left with?

In a world where Hellebuyck, Dubois, and Scheifele are gone, the Jets will be in a tough spot in 2023-24.

The team's centre depth beyond Adam Lowry — who is no one's idea of a top-line centre — would be woeful. An offence that ranked 21st in the NHL last season would project to be in serious trouble without two of its top three players.

On the goaltending side, Winnipeg's crease is barren outside of Hellebuyck, and the team is likely to acquire some kind of goaltending option via trade if these deals go through. Whoever that option would be, Winnipeg could expect a significant downgrade.

A team that barely made the playoffs in 2022-23 looks like it could get a lot worse, even if there are a few remaining impact players in Connor, Josh Morrissey, and Nikolaj Ehlers.

The possible trade returns might help soften the blow of these departures, but whoever acquires Winnipeg's stars will be in a win-now mindset, so it would make no sense for them to hand the Jets players capable of generating comparable production to the guys they're getting back.

The team currently projects to have $12.2 million in cap space, and that number could grow depending on the nature of the trades it makes.

Despite having some financial flexibility, the question with the Jets is always whether the team will be able to attract free agents to Winnipeg. Without litigating the merits of the small-market destination, the numbers speak for themselves.

There isn't a single player on the books for more than $1 million in 2023-24 that arrived via free agency.

That could change this offseason, but a Winnipeg rebuild is unlikely to be driven by free-agent additions. The Jets will have to get better again via the draft. The team has some promising players in a prospect pool ranked 13th in the NHL by The Athletic, and 21-year-old Cole Perfetti is an intriguing talent, but there is no "next wave" that's going to right the ship soon.

Winnipeg has the 18th pick in the 2023 draft, and just 11 of its allotted 14 picks over the next two drafts with second-rounders missing in both. That's not a devastating loss, but there's no war chest of picks or incoming super-prospects here.

Because of the difficulty the Jets have attracting free agents, team-building is already harder in Winnipeg than it is elsewhere. Now the squad looks like it's tearing down a competitive core and starting a reconstruction effort with a collection of young talent that is far from unimpeachable.

The trade value of the players the Jets are hoping to move is limited by the fact none of them come with team control, so it's tough to imagine truly massive hauls coming Winnipeg's way.

Although the Jets are acting responsibly by trying to get something for their top players before they walk away, the journey back to contention seems like it'll be a long one.