With Trump Victory, Will Automakers Slow Their EV Roll in the US?

• With a new administration coming, will automakers, already frustrated that customers aren’t flocking to buy their new EVs, have to scurry and reprioritize their product investments toward ICE powertrains?

• That seems doubtful. “Every brand has invested in BEV capacity. Every brand is invested in battery capacity,” Toyota’s David Christ says. “That stuff’s coming, and we’re going to have to sell it.”

• But Toyota will stay the course with lots of hybrids (offered as such in the 2025 Toytota 4Runner pictured above), as sales have been brisk.
  

President-Elect Donald Trump has made it clear he’s no fan of battery-electric vehicles, instead vowing to “Drill, baby, drill” for oil so motorists can keep using internal-combustion engines.

When he takes office for his second term in January, the auto industry and car enthusiasts will be watching closely to see how BEVs fit in his view of mobility for America, if at all.

Will federal investments from the Biden Administration to expand and improve the charging infrastructure end immediately, leaving BEV owners even more discouraged? Will automakers, already frustrated that customers aren’t flocking to buy their new EVs, have to scurry and reprioritize their product investments toward ICE powertrains?

From Toyota’s perspective, that won’t happen—this from a company that had been criticized for slow-rolling into the modern EV era.

“We are building a $14 billion battery facility in North Carolina. We’re going to build hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-electric vehicle batteries, and those batteries need to go in cars that we need to sell,” David Christ, group vice president and general manager of Toyota Division-Toyota Motor North America, tells journalists today at an Automotive Press Association gathering in Troy, Michigan.

“So there’s a certain amount of—once the direction is set, it’s going,” Christ says. “I don’t see all of a sudden every brand saying, ‘Hey, we’re not selling the EVs anymore, right?’ It’s more of a… what is the water level that works for the consumer, works for the climate effort, and works for the government? And that, to me, is what the industry has to find.”

While presidential elections happen like clockwork every four years, automotive product cycles extend much longer, in some cases a decade or more.

Christ says Toyota’s vehicle cycle is usually five to six years for a car-based unibody platform before it needs to be refreshed or fully redesigned. Body-on-frame vehicles (such as Toyota Sequoia, Tundra, Tacoma, 4Runner, and Land Cruiser) require bigger investments, so those lifecycles run six to 10 years, he says.

Meanwhile, powertrains “tend to stick around for 10 or 12 years” before being redesigned.

On the battery-electric front, EV sales growth has lost momentum, to the point that automakers will struggle to meet regulatory sales targets.

“But every brand has invested in BEV capacity. Every brand is invested in battery capacity,” Christ says. “That stuff’s coming, and we’re going to have to sell it, so it can help if they (federal government) bring the regulations down.”

Trump has already vowed to scale back federal EV sales targets and vehicle emissions standards, which would take some heat off the automakers.

But the US is merely one market (not even the largest) in a world that is demanding battery-electric vehicles to deal with the growing threat of climate change, made worse by tailpipe emissions. Automakers think, act, and invest globally, and for years that momentum has been toward BEVs.

“For us and all other brands, that ball is rolling downhill, and there obviously are decisions being made where investments are slowed or maybe some investments aren’t made,” Christ says. “But the momentum and the investment is on its way, so there will be more BEVs over the next three years.”

Toyota wants to have “multiple options” for EVs, including a small car and an improved bZ4X crossover with longer range, and he says the brand remains committed to launching a three-row all-electric SUV in the US. “The timing of when those vehicles launch is always subject to supply chains, engineering, etc.”

Keeping the consumer in the forefront is critical as these political cycles swing, as no one wants to be told they have to buy something by a certain date, he says. “It keeps me up at night.”

Meanwhile, as the undisputed king of hybrids, Toyota sees growth for these gasoline-electric powertrains, some of which will have a plug.

Christ says about 45% of new Toyotas sold in the US so far this year are hybrids, up from about 30% last year. That compares to 18% for all automakers in the US this year, up from about 12% last year. Toyota is not slowing down with hybrids.

“Our percentage is going to go up,” he says. “I don’t have a number prediction for you, but … it’s going to be over 50% probably by the end of the year, and next year it’s going to be higher than that.”

It’s taken Toyota a long time to reach this point of hybrid saturation across virtually its entire lineup. Christ says gasoline cost $0.90 a gallon when the Prius came out in 1997 (2001 in the US), when Americans were instead eager to buy full-size pickups and SUVs.

The Highlander was the first Toyota offered with both a hybrid and a conventional powertrain, but consumers were reluctant to pay the premium for a hybrid at a higher trim level. “It was engineered to be fuel efficient, not engineered to be fun to drive,” Christ says of the original Highlander hybrid.

Today, Toyota has figured out how to make hybrids fun to drive, while keeping the cost premium low and saving consumers even more money at the pump. “The current hybrids have no compromise,” he says, referring to the popular RAV4 compact crossover, offered as a hybrid or a conventional ICE.

“The hybrid sells faster and is in more demand than the internal-combustion (model),” he says. “It’s more fun to drive and, ‘Oh by the way, I’m doing right by the environment.’” The all-new 2025 Toyota 4Runner will launch in January with an available hybrid powertrain.

Which automakers do you expect to fare best under the second Trump administration? Please comment below.