Is the 2035 ICE Sale Ban Target in Europe Still Realistic?

• Industry groups resist calls from within the European Union to weaken or postpone the 2035 target date adopted by the EU in March 2023 to phase-out sales of new gas and diesel cars and light trucks.

• A number of political forces within the EU seek to postpone the target date, amid calls from some automakers seeing slow EV sales gains over the past two years.

• Automakers that have invested the most in a quick turn to EV tech now face a different sales environment after a couple years of gains early in the pandemic.

The European Union's plans to phase out the sale of internal-combustion cars and trucks are drawing renewed skepticism from some industry groups and automakers, just as other automakers are urging the bloc to keep the planned target date.

The timeline itself was adopted by members of the European Parliament in March 2023 and envisions a gradual phase-out of new gas and diesel cars and light trucks. By fall of the same year the planned phase-out had already seen pushback, with the recent slowdown in EV demand feeding more skepticism from political factions and automakers alike.

Back in 2020 a number of automakers raced to adopt ambitious EV-only sales targets, in what was viewed as an inevitable and quickly approaching EV future.

Now, in 2024, that EV future looks a little less certain to arrive as promised, and industry groups formed by companies that have spent considerable sums on EV tech over the past few years are battling calls from within the EU to weaken or push back the 2035 target.

As the rate of EV sales in the first half of 2024 reached merely 12.5% in Europe, their anxiety is certainly easy to understand.

"Many of us have invested massively to make this imperative climate commitment a reality," said a group of 50 companies allied under the name Industry for 2035, which includes Volvo, Rivian, Maesrk, Uber, and others.

"The EU CO2 emission standards for cars and vans provides a clear direction that allows us businesses to focus on delivering the transformation required."

Volvo, as part of the group, notably backed away from its own 100% EV sales target by 2030 just last month, acknowledging actual industry trends.

Complicating these plans is the fact that the largest bloc in the European Parliament, the European People's Party (EPP), has been trying to weaken the ban for some time.

The UK is no longer part of the EU, but the country had a similar timeline in place for 2030, one that was subsequently moved back to 2035 by then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

But even the 2035 timeline is now drawing skepticism from UK drivers.

A recent study by alternative fuel group Sustain that surveyed 2000 Britons revealed that 52% believe the 2035 target will not be met. A further 59% of those surveyed said they plan to keep their own gas or diesel vehicle on the road as long as possible; 50% said the environmental impact of scrapping a working car would be too great.

"Whether we meet the deadline on new cars and van sales or not, one thing is certain: We're going to have ICE vehicles on our roads for years to come," said David Richardson from Sustain, the company behind the study. "What we need is a strategy that addresses this. It's important to stress that ICEs are not the issue here—it's the fossil fuel we put in them."

The planned 2035 target has drawn renewed skepticism over the past year in the face of slowing demand for EVs. BMW CEO Oliver Zipse recently told Reuters that canceling the 2035 target would reduce automakers' reliance on EV batteries from China—a topic which has become more prominent as Chinese EV brands have made inroads in Europe.

The issue of Chinese EV brands themselves, never seen as a threat to European brands' market share just a few short years ago in Europe, has become politically charged as hefty tariffs now loom.

Even a decade ago some European automaker executives predicted in frank conversations—sometimes in quite pessimistic terms—that the EV adoption rate could effectively reach a certain plateau, attaining perhaps 20% or 30% market share, and simply stall there for years without moving.

They also predicted vastly different EV adoption rates in some countries of the EU as compared to others, which is certainly happening today in neighboring countries like Norway and Poland, or a number of other Eastern Europe/Western Europe sales comparisons.

As 2025 rapidly approaches, it remains to be seen whether the EV adoption rate in the EU and elsewhere can make up ground over the next five years, perhaps reaching a point where nearly 50% of consumer vehicle sales could indeed be electric or hydrogen by the end of the decade.

If that were to actually happen (representing a dramatic gain that is admittedly difficult to imagine), perhaps the 2035 target for 100% ZEV sales would look more achievable than it does today.

If the past five years have shown anything, it's that the EV adoption rate might progress in fits and starts rather than demonstrating steady growth.

Is 2035 still a realistic target date for the phase-out of new gas and diesel vehicle sales in Europe, or does the current rate of growth suggest otherwise? Let us know in the comments below.